Introduction: I Don't Gamble. I Just... Exist?
"I don’t buy Bitcoin because I don’t gamble" .
This statement—innocent, confident, and entirely unexamined—sparked this reflection.
Because the truth is: You are always gambling.
Every single day. No, not Vegas style. No slot machines, blackjack tables, or impulsive bets on greyhounds named "Turbo Muffin." But the more insidious kind—decisions made under uncertainty, whether you acknowledge it or not.
You gamble when you hire an executive. You gamble when you launch a product. You gamble when you leave a secure job for a startup, order sushi from a questionable airport kiosk, or attempt a “quick meeting” with Legal.
Probability is everywhere. Whether you believe in Bitcoin or baloney, you are placing bets. The question isn’t if you gamble. The question is:
Are you calculating your odds, or just hoping your gut is smarter than math?
Let’s dig in.
Section I: A Crash Course in Probability for Suits and Strategists
Let’s break down four foundational concepts—without falling asleep at the desk chair:
1. Probability
This is just the likelihood of something happening. Usually between 0 (no chance) and 1 (certainty). For example:
0.30.0000450/50, if they're caffeinated.2. Odds
Often confused with probability. Odds are just another way of expressing the same thing.
If the probability of success is 0.25 (25%), then the odds are 1 to 3 — one success for every three failures.
Odds sound cooler when gambling, but probability is easier when building spreadsheets.
3. Expected Value (EV)
Now we’re talking executive language. Expected Value is your weighted average return, considering all possible outcomes.
It answers: “If I made this decision 1,000 times, what’s the average result?”
Example:
You’re offered two options:
Expected Value of Option A:
(0.9 * $1,000,000) + (0.1 * -$500,000) = $900,000 - $50,000 = $850,000
Option B: $300K
On paper, Option A wins. But here's where executives get ulcers:
EV doesn’t account for volatility, risk tolerance, or public shareholder meltdowns.
That's where the art meets the science.
4. Your Edge
Your edge is your information advantage, insight, skill, or strategic position that increases your probability of a better outcome.
It’s what makes you better than random.
Warren Buffett’s edge is valuation discipline. Your edge might be market timing, insider knowledge, or an uncanny knack for hiring future CMOs who still use AOL.
Without edge, you’re just tossing coins and praying they land the right way.
Section II: From Kindergarten to IPO—You’ve Always Played the Odds
Let’s debunk the idea that gambling is limited to poker tables and Bitcoin bros.
You’ve been gambling since your very first juice box.
Education: The Most Expensive Dice Roll of Your Life
Let’s say you took out $200K in student loans, suffered through Econ 401, and did unpaid internships that required a full-time wardrobe. Why?
Because you believed that statistically, people with degrees from top schools earn more.
You were right. Mostly.
But it was still a gamble. You placed a bet that the expected value of your education outweighed the cost and risk.
Your edge? Ambition. GPA. Alumni network. Parents who whispered “networking” into your crib.
Starting a Business: The Sophisticated Craps Table
Launching a company is just socially acceptable gambling with a pitch deck and way more caffeine.
You run the numbers:
But still… You are betting that market conditions, customer behavior, and runway align in your favor.
Even with seed capital and a hoodie that says “Founder,” you're rolling the dice—just with nicer branding.
Section III: Stocks, Sushi, and Crossing the Street
Investing in the Stock Market: Probability in a Power Suit
Every stock you buy is a belief, a bet, a probability puzzle.
When you buy Apple stock, you’re not buying fruit. You’re betting the company will continue to innovate, grow, and generate cash—and that the market will reward it.
Fundamental analysis is really just math-based storytelling:
“We think there’s a 70% chance this company continues to grow at 8% annually, and a 10% chance it gets eaten by Google.”
Your edge? Research. Sector knowledge. Timing.
Or that cousin who works at an M&A law firm and really needs to learn discretion.
Section IV: And Now... Bitcoin
Let’s revisit the infamous statement:
“I don’t buy Bitcoin because I don’t gamble.”.
Well... let’s reframe that.
Bitcoin is a Probabilistic Bet on the Future of Money
Let’s simplify:
Buying Bitcoin = Believing there’s a high enough probability that this asset will be more valuable tomorrow than today.
In other words, it's a play on:
Bitcoin isn’t magic. It’s not voodoo.
It’s not even that different from buying a startup’s stock. It’s just a probability play.
The expected value depends on your beliefs:
EV = (0.3 * 10x) + (0.7 * 0x) = 3x
If you think that math is even remotely close to reality, it might be a good bet. If not, pass.
Either way, you’re evaluating probabilities.
You’re placing a bet.
Section V: The Executive’s Toolkit for Probability-Based Decisions
So, how do you make better bets in your career and business?
1. Quantify the Uncertain
Don’t just say “This could work.” Assign numbers. Even rough ones.
What’s the chance this product hits $10M ARR in 3 years? 20%? 50%?
2. Multiply by Expected Value
Think in EV, not just outcomes.
Would you rather have:
Then consider: What’s your risk appetite?
3. Identify Your Edge
Where do you consistently win more often than chance?
Where do you have better data, instincts, or insight?
Your edge is what makes the probabilities work in your favor.
Without edge, you’re a gambler.
With edge, you’re a strategist.
Final Word: You're Already in the Casino
Look around.
Corporate strategy? A poker table.
M&A deals? Giant craps game.
Product innovation? Slot machines with 12-month roadmaps.
But here's the truth: You can be the house, not the player.
When you understand probability, think in expected value, and play only when you have an edge,
you stop gambling blindly—and start winning intelligently.
So go ahead. Run the numbers. Make your moves.
And remember—just because you’re in a suit doesn’t mean you’re not at the table.
But if you're smart, you’ll play to win.